Betting Analysis: Chuck Liddell vs. Rashad Evans
Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell played in the 2008 World Series of Poker in early July (you can watch him play on ESPN Tuesday at the TV table with Phil Hellmuth next week) and we shared a few cocktails with him that night during a sponsor’s party in The Palms. Being the gambling degenerates that we are, we were hoping to pick his brain about his upcoming fight against Rashad Evans. So we are trying to come up with some clever way to get some insider betting info when Chuck blurts out:
“Bet everything you got on me. I heard Rashad wants to stand up with me and if that’s the case, that’s the biggest mistake he can possibly make.”
He went on to say that after he beats Rashad Evans, that he would fight for the title and Forrest Griffin (who we broke he’d fight against here) would “have no chance against me and Forrest would tell you the same thing.”
But, that’s a whole other post.
Chuck’s no dummy (at least when he’s not on pain meds) and while every fighter thinks he’s going to win, he had a clear picture of how this fight will go down months ago. By all accounts, Rashad will have to stand up with Chuck because no one has ever been able to take him down consistently. Randy Couture got Liddell down, but he knocked Randy the fuck out (twice), and Rashad Evans isn’t Randy Couture. Prior to his loss to Quinton “Batshit Crazy” “Rampage” Jackson, Chuck had KO’d seven straight dudes.
The UFC hype machine promotes Rashad Evans’ undefeated record. However, while Chuck Liddell has been fighting in the equivalent of the SEC (i.e., the best division in college football BY FAR), Rashad has been fighting in the Big Sky Conference (i.e., not so much). His entire UFC win total is over the likes of Sean Salmon, Jason Lambert, Stephan Bonnar (respectable), Sam Hoger and Brad Imes. Not exactly a murder’s row of Light Heavyweight talent.
What’s more, his last two fights have been shit shows- a boring as hell draw against the fighter formerly known as Tito Ortiz (who Chuck KO’d), and a split decision against that limey Michael Bisping. Rashad has to be the most uninspiring undefeated fighter in the history of the UFC.
We agree with Chuck’s prediction to us in July, and believe Rashad will get knocked out. This line (-260) is just where we expected it to be and we don’t see tremendous value here but will make a wager because we’re degenerates like that. So we’ll bet $1040 to win $400 and look forward to seeing Chuck’s next fight vs. Forrest for the title.
Bet on Liddell vs. Evans and watch a preview of the fight below.
