Betting Analysis: Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer

TUF Season 5 winner Nate Diaz has torn through every cupcake UFC matchmaker Joe Silva has put in front of him.  Diaz is riding a four-fight UFC win streak and has made it look pretty easy, winning each via submission.

Diaz has publicly said that he wants some tougher competition, but for whatever reason the best he can get is a Main Event fight at Ultimate Fight Night against Josh Neer. Let’s face it, Nick Diaz is probably never going to be a champion at 155, but if he wants to step up against better competition then give him what he wants.

Nate Diaz’s all-around fighting skills seem to be pretty strong, but it is tough to determine exactly how skilled this guy really is because of his level of competition. His victories have come against the likes of Manny Gamburyan, Junior Assuncao, Alvin Robinson, and Kurt Pellagrino.  That’s on par with beating your first four opponents on Wii Boxing, including the guy with the mullet who just stands there and let’s you punch him in the face repeatedly.

No doubt that Diaz is a ground wizard with seven of his nine wins coming via submission, but we are yet to see what happens if Nate Diaz is forced to keep a fight standing. Eventually he is going to need to demonstrate he has a standup game if he wants to become an elite fighter at 155.

Josh “The Dentist” Neer has a ton of MMA experience and has definitely fought tougher dudes than Nate Diaz.  Josh has wins against Melvin Guillard, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, and most recently Din Thomas. Moving down from Welterweight to Lightweight has proved to be the difference for Josh.  He is on a three fight win streak in the division and finally feels like he has found a home.

Josh Neer is as tough as they come, but he will want to keep this fight on his feet.  Diaz wants this fight on the ground and get another submission, so this will likely be a style fight, favoring whichever fighter will be able to execute the game plan.

In the end, we think Neer will be another stepping stone for Diaz. We think the UFC is bringing Diaz along slowly and perhaps wants him to get more wins and experience while waiting for the division to open up a little.  We don’t want to put a ton of coin on this because Diaz is still a little green, so we’ll just bet $440 to win $200

Bet on Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer and put your money where your mouth is.